Rift Valley Fever Early Warning Systems for Pandemic preparedness in Kenya

Dr.Nanyingi M O

Interdecadal and interannual climate variability has led to emergence and reemergence of zoonoses in Kenya. Pastoralists and small holder farmers are mostly affected due to their higher vulnerability and poor adaptive capacity; predisposed by lack of accurate predictive warning systems. The Global Information and Early Warning and Information System (GLEWS), FAO Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES), Famine Early Warning System (FEWSNET) and Malaria Early Warning System (MEWS) are existing but inadequate databases that rely on seasonal weather forecasts, governments’ meteorological data and geospatial mapping repositories to predict pandemics of climate sensitive diseases (CSD). In Kenya the Department of Veterinary Services (DVS) under the Epidemiology communications Office has established a community based early warning (CBEWS) contingency plan to monitor the convergence of risk factors that predispose to Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreaks and effectively communicate to stakeholders for early response in a 3-5 month lead period. This is supported by non-governmental partners’; it involves the vulnerable communities, educational and research institutions. Some of the impediments in tackling CSD are lack of understanding of the drivers of climate change by local experts, dysfunctional communication channels, financial constraints, Ethno-religious barriers, trans-boundary conflicts, poor government policies and lack of human capacity and equipment in designing predictive tools. The prioritized beneficiaries of climate risk detection and prediction information systems are the pastoral and vulnerable communities; however this may be utilized by research institutions, government and donors for planning. Sustainable planning and decision making tools to support the development of appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies have been achieved by conducting community sensitization, awareness raising in schools, continuous training of veterinary, medical and public health personnel. The Kenya Meteorological Department in conjunction with DVS are working on rejuvenating information and dissemination EWS that targets end users like vernacular radio stations to confer a sense of ownership in the final results. We are investigating the Spatio-temporal distribution and burden analysis of RVF in Garissa, Northern Kenya; using model-based approaches in prediction of future outbreaks in response to climate change. We envisage employing participatory approaches and hotspots risk mapping in estimating the economic impacts on livelihoods and develop RVF -EWS for public preparedness. A Kenyan Zoonotic disease department has been specifically established for technical capacity building to standardize the management of emerging zoonoses including CSD. Quasi real-time syndromic and sentinel e- surveillance using mobile phones involving communities is in experimental phase in RVF monitoring. Our dissemination of geographic, statistical and meteorological data for vulnerability and early warning platforms is hinged on collaboration of regional animal and human health institutions in managing of existing and emerging diseases of veterinary and public health significance. We take therefore cognizance of a community based approach in early and timely detection of RVF is vital to veterinary, health authorities and policy-makers in immediate decision making. It contributes to an integrated climate risk assessment of livestock vulnerability analysis using climate dependent RVF model to develop predictive risk maps that will be crucial in current and future control plans of other climate sensitive diseases and possibly provide Early Warning Systems (EWS). The output will contribute to institutional contingency frameworks dealing with concepts and indicators of warning systems which will facilitate the early identification of potential climate sensitive epidemics and decision support systems

Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation and Mitigation of Livestock Systems in Kenya

Nanyingi M O,1,2,3, Kiama S G,1, Thumbi S M'4 and Muchemi G M,2 1 Wangari Maathai Institute for Environmental Studies and Peace, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Science, University of Nairobi PO BOX 30197 Nairobi, Kenya 2 Department of Public Health, Pharmacology and Toxicology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Nairobi PO BOX 30197 Nairobi, Kenya 3 Colorado State University Fort Collins, Livestock‐Climate Change Collaborative Research Support Program, CO 80523‐ 1644,USA 4 Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, Kings Buildings ,University of Edinburgh, , West Mains Road, EH9 6JT, City of Edinburgh,Scotland,UK In Kenya, global circulation models predict that, by the year 2100, climate change will increase temperatures by about 4°C leading to massive crop failure, reduced availability of forage and water, livestock mortality and loss of livelihoods. Consequently vast economic impacts are expected, because of higher vulnerability and the exceeding magnitude of future hazards to the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities. Historically livestock keepers have developed adaptive measures that include traditional early warning systems, use of emergency fodders, multi‐species composition of herds and nomadic mobility to reduce their vulnerability. However, lack of understanding of the drivers of climate change due to inconsistent weather data remains a major challenge causing unreliable and inaccurate prediction of climate change patterns. It is important to identify replicable and cost effective mitigation activities to strengthen the adaptive capacities to climate change of affected communities. Here we review strategies to bridge the knowledge gap in understanding the present and future impacts of climate change on indigenous livestock production systems and options of adaptation to and climate change mitigation based on the indigenous knowledge. We propose a systematic methodology to study vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors and the potential for utilization of participatory mapping tools, geographic data and predictive models of infectious disease burden for anticipatory and reactive adaptive preparedness. The overall thrust of the review is to improve the ability of vulnerable people and their livestock to be more resilient to current climate variability and their decision‐making to climate change. Key words: Climate change; Livestock; Adaptation; Kenya